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Clarity II

By: Publius in GOP, Election '06 on 6:32 pm

Wizbang! has extraordinary information that I would venture to guess those of you following FOXnews and the other major media outlets would not be receiving at this point in time. Yes, that means that it bodes well for Republicans. In fact, this information begins to explain the strong Democrat projections based off of those individuals who are voting today.

NATIONAL 

Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote)

Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.

ARIZONA

There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day - and 41% of the state has already voted.

In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)

CONNECTICUT

In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.

FLORIDA

Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day - and 36% of the state has already voted.

Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)

StoptheACLU has more analysis,

TENNESSEE

* (not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data)
* In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote.
* We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.

VIRGINIA:

* In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%.
* Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%.